HABS AT 30 GAMES (+1): WHO ARE THEY?

As we are now past the 30 game mark, its time to ask ourselves who these Habs are? First the basic facts:

Record: 19-10-2

Rank: 3rd in their division (1 pt out of first), 4th in the conference (1pt from first)

This taken on its on is pretty impressive. It would say the Habs are a top tier team in the East. The underlying numbers tell a different story:

1- Habs tend to have horrid starts and typically spot the opposition the 1st and sometimes 2nd goal

2- Habs tend to get outshot on a regular basis

3- Habs goal differencial is a pedestrian +4 (thanks to 6-2 win over Kings last night)

4- Habs PP is a bottom feeder

So, how did this team manage to end up 1 point from 1st after 30+ games? The answer would be goaltending, opportunistic scoring and a bit of luck. 

In my opinion, the Habs are still a developing team that is grooming some kids and positioning itself to be a steady contender. The encouraging signs are there in terms of young players and prospects. What happened, again in my opinion, is that last year's playoff run warped fans perceptions and thus their expectations. Management however is clearly not fooled and has held the course development wise. This is evident in the way they have approached their two young d-men (Tinordi and Beaulieu). They gave each a fair shot at camp and early on and neither of them showed that he truly belonged. Instead of throwing them into the fire on a bottom D pair, the Habs sent the two back to the AHL tlo log heavy minutes and to develop certain aspects of their games. Then Bergevin acquired veteran depth at D to give them and his team time to let the young D develop. This should tell you all you need to know about Bergevin and his plan. As a point of reference, Duncan Keith spent two full seasons in the AHL before cracking the Blackhawks as a regular Dman (2003-2005). Bergevin is clearly applying the patient development method but the team will also make room for young players who force their way onto the lineup through their play (Galchenyuk and Gallagher a couple of years ago stand out). The two young D are seen as top 4 material. It seems apparent the Habs want them playing in their top 4 in the future, hence they are adopting a careful development method with them.

That should tell you all you need to know about this team: they will take their time developing their players because they see things in the long term as opposed to right now. To be honest, what has the "right now" approach done for the Habs before Bergevin arrived? The answer a middling to bad team that got patched every year. I for one prefer the patient approach that is FINALLY being used by the Canadiens. 

Kids will get spots in the line up when they EARN THEM. 

Veterans will get a bit more slack because that is how all pro sports work. A veteran who has a track record will get a bit more leeway if he struggles. 

This brings me to the issue of balance...

Every team needs a mix of young players, young veterans and veterans with experience. That is how you WIN. The "play the kids" chant while highly entertaining has moved into the ludicrous zone with many Habs fans. I am all for giving young players a shot but some balance is needed and more to the point management has to be ready to act if certain kids show they are not ready. I prefer being patient than seeing a player burnt out because he was rushed to the lineup. 

So, that brings me back to my original point: Habs are still developing. This progression may go faster or slower at times and fans need to be aware of this. For once we have a smart management team. Let them do their work!

If the Habs continue to play with fire, they will get burnt. That will happen when Price cannot save the team from disaster. The team needs to improve overall D-play and to generate more offense. The PP also needs to get going because while it does not win you most of your games, it can make a significant difference in certain games with that timely goal or two. 

Going forward the Habs have needs to address. They need a true no 2-3 Dman and a top 6 (or even top 3) RW. 

They have chips to trade and at some point you can expect Bergevin to make that blockbuster trade. He will do that when the time is ripe and one thing is for sure, no one will see it coming!

Other tidbits and issues

1- Habs will shed 2-3 dmen this summer. Gonchar, Allan and Weaver will all see their deals expire. That means SPOTS will be available for the kids but also valuable CAP ROOM for the Habs. I expect the team to get one veteran d-man, if possible a top 4 one via trade before that happens. 

2- Gallagher contract was another Bergevin homerun. I expect the same with Galchenyuk (not same money but a smart deal). Bergevin is cemeting his reputation as a solid GM. 

3- Centre line is looking interesting. Desharnais ran out of rope or hung himself with his own rope (whatever you prefer). When Eller returns, it will get interesting but I think that unless Desharnais catches fire on the third line or unless Galchenyuk turns into a Titanic-like disaster on the first line, he will be the odd man out. In my opinion, Desharnais was always a short term solution for the Habs at centre. His deal proves that: 3.5M for 4 years is a pedestrian deal for a 45-50pt centre. Yes that is what he is a playmaking 45-50pt per year centre. The Habs cast him as their 1st line C by default (much like Koivu was misscast for most of his years in MTL and NO I am NOT saying they are comparable players). Desharnais is really an offensive playmaking 2C. His defensive game is not that great. He needs to be used based on that to be effective. I think the Habs centre line will be Galchenyuk - Plekanec - Eller sooner than later. If Eller shows he can produce on a constant basis then Plekanec may become your 3C on a shutdown line as he gets older. Desharnais will be traded and contrary to demented popular opinion a 45-50pt playmaking center at 3.5M per season for 2 more years is a tradeable asset. 

4- Last week Bergevin came out and said something that should resonate with fans of all ilks. The statement went something like: the Habs will, at equal talent, pick the francophone player. The coach will speak French, that is a must. Now this should be clear enough that some fans will get that this is a Habs management decision top to bottom as Molson has stated as much too. These initiatives speak to the history and culture of the team and of the place where they play. This does not mean settling for less. The Habs have over the years hired some good to great french speaking coaches. Just for shit and giggles: Julien (1 Cup win, 1 Cup appearance), Vigneault (2 cup appearances), Therrien (1 cup appearance), Martin (boring as heck but decent record as a coach overall), There are quality french speaking coaches out there and the Habs recognize the importance of this for the bulk of their fans. That is not to say that if Mike Babcock became available and the Habs were looking for a new coach that he would not be a candidate. Concerning francophone players the policy seems reasonable as well. At equivalent talent (in terms of overall game) the team will choose a francophone player. Then again, Timmins is a superb scout and would not pass up a player he wants in the 2nd round to pick a francophone player. There will always be fans who will say a player or coach was drafted or hired ONLY because he speaks French. That is manure and it is pretty ugly prejudice. Perhaps one day it will disappear or be swept under the rug but with twitter that is unlikely. Venturing out on twitter or reading various blogs you can get a pretty complete tour of the sewers when it comes to this issue. 

5- When Desharnais is traded, I wonder which player will become the target of the posse. They seem to need a target on a visceral level. I mean Desharnais has been demoted to the 3rd line, gets next to no PP time and some of the uglier fans still attack the kid with insults and demeaning comments. You would think he was making 7M per season, oh wait that was Gomez. So when Desharnais gets traded, the posse will turn on someone else to vomit on. Therrien might get the brunt of it...hmmm...see a trend there? No that is just, in the words of Ralph of the Simpsons UMPOSSIBLE. 

6- Bold prediction: Habs will make the playoffs and will battle for top 3 in the division. Bergevin will continue to wheel and deal to mold the team into what he wants. 

7- My Niners will get thumped in Seattle this weekend. This season has been a disaster.

8-  The Maple Laffs are showing signs of life...will it last?

9- That guy in Detroit sure can coach....

10- Lecavalier will not be traded to Montreal. His contract and his play make him a player you stay away from.