The Plan, the team and the players: normal evolution

Habs GM Marc Beregin and his coach Michel Therrien, along with the rest of the team management team have been working according to a team plan and structure that will lead the Habs to become a regular contender at some point in the near future. When this all started the Habs had just finished at the bottom of the NHL and then there was the lockout. Coming out of the lockout, Bergevin started showing signs of what his plan was: make the team younger (when the kids are ready), deeper, bigger and more structurally sound. This would be done without trading blue chip prospects or top draft picks. 

Looking at the moves made by the Habs, they have stuck to this plan. Bergevin has also managed to sign players to very reasonable deals in terms of length and cap hit. This means the Habs have room to maneuver but also that players are for the most part all trade chips if need be.  

Most recently we have seen proof of this with Moen being traded what has proved to be a very useful Sergei Gonchar. All the while saving precious cap space for this summer with the unloading of Moen's deal. Bourque was also moved, along with his contract for a depth dman whose contract expires. Bergevin collects dmen and this will not change. This means the Habs are deep on D and can hopfully deal well with injuries there. Before fans whine and cry about these two old d-men Bergevin acquired, look at their deals: they expire this summer. That tells you that these guys are there for depth but also to allow the Habs to properly develop Tinordi and Beaulieu. That is the smart and patient approach that Bergevin uses and while fans may cry about it, demand he "lets the kids play", this will only happen when he and the coach feel its time and when the kids force themselves onto the lineup through play. Then and only then will Bergevin move someone to make room or will Therrien sit a vet to let a kid play. This is how this team is run and their record since Bergevin and Therrien took over says they seem to be doing something right. 

When you look at contracts and young players coming up you can see how the Habs being patient with Galchenyuk may have paid off. They put him at center when they felt he was ready. David Desharnais, the focus of much hatred and bashing from fans, was moved to the 3rd line at center and then on the wing when Eller returned. This was all very predictable in my opinion. Desharnais got a deal that screamed temporary solution. 3.5M for 4 years is a very reasonable deal for a playmaking 2C or 3C that produces 45-50 points per season. That kid was put in as 1st center by default and until chucky was ready. Now that this has happened and if Eller grabs onto his opportunity at center, Desharnais will be traded. Not to disappoint his haters but he is not that hard to trade. His deal is reasonable and he has shown he can produce when put in the right spot. He is also a hard worker. I figured Desharnais was always vulnerable to trade and that is fine by me. I hope the kid lands in a good spot. 

For all this to happen, Eller has to produce on a regular basis and be present and accounted for in terms of effort everynight. If he goes to sleep for a while, you can expect him to be moved to the wing to wake him up and then Desharnais could slide back in at Center. 

On defence, Beaulieu has been playing since injuries occurred. He has done well in my opinion but he needs to do a bit more to win a regular spot. I am not of the school of thought that he should be playing top 4 or nothing. I am perfectly comfortable with Beaulieu playing on the bottom pair and EARNING more ice time. Tinordi will be called up at some point to show if he has progressed according to what the team asked of him. Before losing your minds, consider that Duncan Keith in Chicago played TWO FULL SEASONS in the AHL before earning a spot with Chicago. Also consider what Detroit does with their prospects, keeping them in the AHL longer. There is not just one way to develop young players and the Habs seem to be using the slow and patient approach. The things is, they can afford too! Their core is young and maturing and they have good veterans for now. Bergevin is not building to patch for this year, he wants long term success and for this to happen he needs young players to develop properly. 

Notes and tidbits:

1- Subban while enjoying a decent season, is not playing like a true #1 dman yet. I am sure he will be fine but he needs to pick it up a little bit. Danny Dubé, a pretty competent hockey analyst provided some insight on this. As he observed, Subban seems to be coasting a bit more out there, perhaps to save some energy. This is hurting his game. Not a bad theory. Subban may also be feeling the pressure of his mammoth deal and trying to do too much. This should all fall into place soon. 

2- Gilbert while excelling with breakout passes is proving to be a liability in many other situations. This may correct itself but there is a reason he only got a 2 year deal!

3- Malhotra may be a stud on face offs but he has 1 point this year after 30+ games. He needs to produce a bit more and if he slips in face off proficiency at all, he will lose his spot.

4- Bergevin did not force Therrien to do anything with the lineup. Thinking that in my opinion means that one does not understand the Bergevin - Therrien relationship very well at all. They do consult with each other but I am convinced Therrien has the final call on the line up. 

5- Emelin is an adventure...one night he can be great then he can be a skating disaster the other night. One hopes that at some point he will settle down!

6- 67-27-11 looks like a solid line but with all due respect Gallagher is NOT a 1st line RW. This will need to be addressed at some point.

7- Parenteau seems like a good fit on the 3rd line, I think he may click with Eller. 

8- Sekac is something to watch. He has really found his groove since being sent to the pressbox. This may have been a good learning experience for him: bring it everynight.

9- Price is well...Price...just give him the Molson Cup for the rest of the year.

10- Prust is back to his old self. He is such a versatile player and a team guy. Great guy to have in your line up. 

HABS AT 30 GAMES (+1): WHO ARE THEY?

As we are now past the 30 game mark, its time to ask ourselves who these Habs are? First the basic facts:

Record: 19-10-2

Rank: 3rd in their division (1 pt out of first), 4th in the conference (1pt from first)

This taken on its on is pretty impressive. It would say the Habs are a top tier team in the East. The underlying numbers tell a different story:

1- Habs tend to have horrid starts and typically spot the opposition the 1st and sometimes 2nd goal

2- Habs tend to get outshot on a regular basis

3- Habs goal differencial is a pedestrian +4 (thanks to 6-2 win over Kings last night)

4- Habs PP is a bottom feeder

So, how did this team manage to end up 1 point from 1st after 30+ games? The answer would be goaltending, opportunistic scoring and a bit of luck. 

In my opinion, the Habs are still a developing team that is grooming some kids and positioning itself to be a steady contender. The encouraging signs are there in terms of young players and prospects. What happened, again in my opinion, is that last year's playoff run warped fans perceptions and thus their expectations. Management however is clearly not fooled and has held the course development wise. This is evident in the way they have approached their two young d-men (Tinordi and Beaulieu). They gave each a fair shot at camp and early on and neither of them showed that he truly belonged. Instead of throwing them into the fire on a bottom D pair, the Habs sent the two back to the AHL tlo log heavy minutes and to develop certain aspects of their games. Then Bergevin acquired veteran depth at D to give them and his team time to let the young D develop. This should tell you all you need to know about Bergevin and his plan. As a point of reference, Duncan Keith spent two full seasons in the AHL before cracking the Blackhawks as a regular Dman (2003-2005). Bergevin is clearly applying the patient development method but the team will also make room for young players who force their way onto the lineup through their play (Galchenyuk and Gallagher a couple of years ago stand out). The two young D are seen as top 4 material. It seems apparent the Habs want them playing in their top 4 in the future, hence they are adopting a careful development method with them.

That should tell you all you need to know about this team: they will take their time developing their players because they see things in the long term as opposed to right now. To be honest, what has the "right now" approach done for the Habs before Bergevin arrived? The answer a middling to bad team that got patched every year. I for one prefer the patient approach that is FINALLY being used by the Canadiens. 

Kids will get spots in the line up when they EARN THEM. 

Veterans will get a bit more slack because that is how all pro sports work. A veteran who has a track record will get a bit more leeway if he struggles. 

This brings me to the issue of balance...

Every team needs a mix of young players, young veterans and veterans with experience. That is how you WIN. The "play the kids" chant while highly entertaining has moved into the ludicrous zone with many Habs fans. I am all for giving young players a shot but some balance is needed and more to the point management has to be ready to act if certain kids show they are not ready. I prefer being patient than seeing a player burnt out because he was rushed to the lineup. 

So, that brings me back to my original point: Habs are still developing. This progression may go faster or slower at times and fans need to be aware of this. For once we have a smart management team. Let them do their work!

If the Habs continue to play with fire, they will get burnt. That will happen when Price cannot save the team from disaster. The team needs to improve overall D-play and to generate more offense. The PP also needs to get going because while it does not win you most of your games, it can make a significant difference in certain games with that timely goal or two. 

Going forward the Habs have needs to address. They need a true no 2-3 Dman and a top 6 (or even top 3) RW. 

They have chips to trade and at some point you can expect Bergevin to make that blockbuster trade. He will do that when the time is ripe and one thing is for sure, no one will see it coming!

Other tidbits and issues

1- Habs will shed 2-3 dmen this summer. Gonchar, Allan and Weaver will all see their deals expire. That means SPOTS will be available for the kids but also valuable CAP ROOM for the Habs. I expect the team to get one veteran d-man, if possible a top 4 one via trade before that happens. 

2- Gallagher contract was another Bergevin homerun. I expect the same with Galchenyuk (not same money but a smart deal). Bergevin is cemeting his reputation as a solid GM. 

3- Centre line is looking interesting. Desharnais ran out of rope or hung himself with his own rope (whatever you prefer). When Eller returns, it will get interesting but I think that unless Desharnais catches fire on the third line or unless Galchenyuk turns into a Titanic-like disaster on the first line, he will be the odd man out. In my opinion, Desharnais was always a short term solution for the Habs at centre. His deal proves that: 3.5M for 4 years is a pedestrian deal for a 45-50pt centre. Yes that is what he is a playmaking 45-50pt per year centre. The Habs cast him as their 1st line C by default (much like Koivu was misscast for most of his years in MTL and NO I am NOT saying they are comparable players). Desharnais is really an offensive playmaking 2C. His defensive game is not that great. He needs to be used based on that to be effective. I think the Habs centre line will be Galchenyuk - Plekanec - Eller sooner than later. If Eller shows he can produce on a constant basis then Plekanec may become your 3C on a shutdown line as he gets older. Desharnais will be traded and contrary to demented popular opinion a 45-50pt playmaking center at 3.5M per season for 2 more years is a tradeable asset. 

4- Last week Bergevin came out and said something that should resonate with fans of all ilks. The statement went something like: the Habs will, at equal talent, pick the francophone player. The coach will speak French, that is a must. Now this should be clear enough that some fans will get that this is a Habs management decision top to bottom as Molson has stated as much too. These initiatives speak to the history and culture of the team and of the place where they play. This does not mean settling for less. The Habs have over the years hired some good to great french speaking coaches. Just for shit and giggles: Julien (1 Cup win, 1 Cup appearance), Vigneault (2 cup appearances), Therrien (1 cup appearance), Martin (boring as heck but decent record as a coach overall), There are quality french speaking coaches out there and the Habs recognize the importance of this for the bulk of their fans. That is not to say that if Mike Babcock became available and the Habs were looking for a new coach that he would not be a candidate. Concerning francophone players the policy seems reasonable as well. At equivalent talent (in terms of overall game) the team will choose a francophone player. Then again, Timmins is a superb scout and would not pass up a player he wants in the 2nd round to pick a francophone player. There will always be fans who will say a player or coach was drafted or hired ONLY because he speaks French. That is manure and it is pretty ugly prejudice. Perhaps one day it will disappear or be swept under the rug but with twitter that is unlikely. Venturing out on twitter or reading various blogs you can get a pretty complete tour of the sewers when it comes to this issue. 

5- When Desharnais is traded, I wonder which player will become the target of the posse. They seem to need a target on a visceral level. I mean Desharnais has been demoted to the 3rd line, gets next to no PP time and some of the uglier fans still attack the kid with insults and demeaning comments. You would think he was making 7M per season, oh wait that was Gomez. So when Desharnais gets traded, the posse will turn on someone else to vomit on. Therrien might get the brunt of it...hmmm...see a trend there? No that is just, in the words of Ralph of the Simpsons UMPOSSIBLE. 

6- Bold prediction: Habs will make the playoffs and will battle for top 3 in the division. Bergevin will continue to wheel and deal to mold the team into what he wants. 

7- My Niners will get thumped in Seattle this weekend. This season has been a disaster.

8-  The Maple Laffs are showing signs of life...will it last?

9- That guy in Detroit sure can coach....

10- Lecavalier will not be traded to Montreal. His contract and his play make him a player you stay away from.

HABS GM IN A WORD: SMART

It has been a while since we could say this about the Habs GM and mean it as a comprehensive judgement on his work. In the recent past the Habs had half-decent to downright bad GMs. Now they got their hands on a pretty darn good one. Putting aside the fact that Bergevin has the near perfect personality fit for the crazy hockey market that is Montreal, his most impressive attribute can be boiled down to one key word: smart. Let us look at examples of this....


Smart: personnel hire

Bergevin has surrounded himself with good to great hockey people.This means that while he is the boss and makes the final calls, he is also extremely well advised. A guy like Dudley for example is a perfect fit. He also hired good people to take care of player development and implemented an organizational re-structuring of the Habs that saw key people moved or kept in key positions. This is true from the GM's decision group to scouting and yes to coaching. He picked a coach I was not thrilled with. In fact, I was not happy at all when Therrien was hired. However, it is hard to argue the results as this coach just keeps winning and now has a deep playoff run under his belt. What interests me here is how the hockey department under Bergevin works hand in hand with the coaching staff when it comes to player movement and development. This is a real organizational strength in my opinion as there is an inner coherence that means moves are made through careful thinking and considering of the entire picture.

Smart: Free Agent acquisitions/signings

Thus far, Bergevin has made next to no significant mistakes on the FA market. He has not handed out dumb contracts for crazy term. All of his FA signings have been in the reasonably price and range category. There is no David Clarkson contract in Montreal for example. The mistakes he has made, ie players that did not work out, he corrected as I will show later. A brief look at his FA record shows smart acquisitions that fill a team need but that also leave the Habs with cap flexibility (more on this later). These FA pickups are either internal (players already on the team that would become UFA) or open market pick ups (free agents in the summer). This past summer would be a pretty good example of smart FA work with the signing of 3 players at very reasonable contracts to fill team needs. Malhotra on a 1 year deal fixes the 4th line center problem and is among the leagues best face off guys, this was a clear need. Gilbert for 2 years at a very reasonable rate beings balance to the D in terms of playing D on their natural side, adds a puck mover and a decent option for the second wave of the PP. Finally, Sekac is a smart addition, a winger with size, speed and decent hands, again at a reasonable price. The FAs he has signed internally have been for good prices or at the very least market prices. Markov and Subban are good examples of D-men signed to good contracts. Guys like Eller at 3.5M and Desharnais at 3.5M are also very reasonable signings in terms of contract length but also cap hit. Eller was paid for potential, Desharnais was paid for production (a 50pt C for 3.5 is pretty reasonable if you look around). The key for me is that if these players do not work out, they can be moved because they all have reasonable contracts. this brings me to part two of this section; correcting one's "mistakes". When Bergevin has signed a player that did not work out, he typically has managed to trade him without getting saddled with a crap contract. In fact, he usually managed to trade that player and free up cap space for that coming off-season (see Cole for Ryder, Moen for Gonchar). He then turned this cap space into a player that fit a need or used the money to re-sign one of his own key players. In other instances he traded a guy that did not work out and got a younger player that can contribute by eating one year of contract (see Brière for Parenteau). This shows that this GM is able to correct his mistakes but to do so by considering his teams needs and the al-valuable asset that cap space is.

Smart: Trades

Let us begin by asking a question: when is the last time a Habs GM made a spectacular trade on deadline day and ended up not overpaying? The quick answer is Bob Gainey trading for Kovalev and paying only a guy named Belaj. Beregin acquired Vanek last year and paid well below typical rental player price. In fact, when has Bergevin paid either a 1st round pick or a top prospect to acquire a player? The answer is never. Thus far Bergevin's real strength is trading for character players that fill key roles on the team and paying bargain basement prices for them. Weaver for a 5th and Weise for Diaz stand out here. The common theme for Bergevin's trades are that they do not cut off the team at the knees in terms of cap hit, that he never overpays and that all his moves are reasonable. This means that Habs under him remain well positioned to make trades and sign players because they have cap space now or in the upcoming offseason and that team needs are met.

Smart: player management and development

Under Bergevin and yes Therrien, this team has opened spots in the lineup for young players like it has almost never done in the past. Lots of fans whine and shout that #letthekidsplay chant but reality, if you look at it is that the GM and coach have made moves to allow kids to play when they earned it. Cases in point? Galchenyuk and Gallagher making the team 2 years ago. Eller earning a contract is another good example and the list goes on. Players that do not earn an immediate spot are told to keep working and an honest look at the Habs shows them that at some point they will have a spot. The D is a good example this year because for all of the griping done by fans, at seasons end Gonchar and Weaver are GONE. Their contracts will be up and thus spots will open up on D. Markov has 2 years left on his deal which means yet another spot opening up in the near future. Gilbert will be done in at the end of next season. This means Tinordi and Beaulieu will have spots on the Habs D but will have been groomed and developed for these spots. They have been and will continue to ve given the chance to prove themselves by playing a few games here and there. As Bergevin and Therrien have often said kids will get spots if they force us to give them spots, in clear: spots are earned. The team also keeps a good stable of crafty and valuable veterans but is not afraid to let some go. This beings us to asset management.

Smart: assets

Bergevin has managed to keep the Habs in a good position with the Cap to either make trades during the season (see: Vanek, Weaver, Weise, Gonchar...) or to have room to sign or re-sign players in the summer (see: Moen for Gonchar, Cole for Ryder, Vanek acquisition last year). The Habs also seem to manage the cap better with player movement from the AHL to the NHL. These micro-moves when added up save cap space as the season progresses. Finally, Bergevin has made moves to either get rid of issues or to make space for a player. He traded Gorges and his 4M contract and signed 2 players to replace him. He waived Bourque who was an anchor and he traded Moen to free cap space but also to open up a spot at F (that means two spots with Bourque being waived). The spots are for Sekac (if he continues to earn it) and probably for Bournival when he returns. He traded Budaj to make room for Tokarski and thus avoid losing the goalie to waivers.


Conclusion

Bergevin is not perfect but he is a pretty good GM. It has been a long time since we had a GM that had a plan (a smart one anyway) and stuck to it through intelligent moves. I would say Bob Gainey was a bit like this before he lost his daughter. Bergevin however is building a pretty good team through smart building block moves all the while avoiding idiot signings or trades. He drafts well through Timins for the most part and develops these players.

To me this bodes well for the future.

A NEW HOPE: THE 2014-15 HABS SEASON

Much like when spring comes, every new NHL season is filled with hope and with aspirations. With the Habs, this is also true and it sometimes takes on slightly exaggerated tones. 

The fact the Habs made it to within ONE WIN of the Stanley Cup Finals will fuel this hope to new heights. However before discussing the season that is going to begin on October 8th, let us identify and dismiss certain unavoidable truths about what Habs fans will say. After getting those out of the way, we can perhaps discuss the season a tad more rationally.

So here are the few Habs Nation unavoidable truths (HNUT for short)

HNUT1: Therrien sucks, he is holding PK back and he is a bad coach

HNUT2:  Desharnais is only playing on the Habs because he is a franco

HNUT3: Habs are icing INSERT PLAYER THAT IS YEARLY TARGET OF TORMENT the WORST player in the league INSERT GIVEN LINE UP POSITION OF GRIEF

HNUT4: Habs disrespect Subban, he will leave (yes this is still heard, even after he signed his 8 year deal)

HNUT5: Habs do not respect francos, they should ice more francophone players

HNUT6: Bergevin sucks (for whatever reason is popular today)

Now this was not an exhaustive list by any means, just a brief glimpse. Now that this is tossed in the recycling bin, because frankly you can never actually get rid of these things, lets discuss the season that is ahead.

Habs: improved? Same? Worse?

I will come out and boldly say the Habs are improved and Bergevin put them in a good spot in terms of depth, added players and cap. 

The defense is more balanced, giving the Habs a chance to really know what they have on the blue line (ex: Emelin playing his natural side). The D is more mobile than before (Gilbert) and a very healthy competition is there for the 3 young d-men coming up. Beaulieu seems to be ahead of Tinordi and Pateryn for now. 

Between the pipes, the Habs have a healthy competition for the backup position and that is a good thing. 

On offense, the Habs still have needs but again, camp has shown that some of the younger forwards can compete (see Thomas for example). 

Habs are no powerhouse but they are on the upswing and will compete for top spot in the Atlantic in my opinion. 

There some issues to be determined:

1- Who will be the backup goaltender?

My opinion is that Tokarski gets the nod and that Budaj is waived or moved.

2- Who wins out the 5th-6th D spot and the 7th D spot?

My opinion is that Beaulieu earns a regular spot on the bottom pair and that one of Pateryn or Tinordi gets 7th spot. Bouillon could be signed (2 way contract being ideal) as depth and for veteran presence but he would see very little action (much like last season by the way).

3- What are the offensive lines going to be....

Tough one but right now my take is as follows:

Pacioretty - Desharnais - Parenteau

Eller - Galchenyuk - Gallagher

Bourque - Plekanec - Sekac

Prust - Malhotra - Weise / Bournival

Spare F: Bournival or Moen (until traded)

I can hear the moaning and crying about Eller already but if you look at it this way, it makes sense (I think): Eller on the W with Chucky means two centremen on the line, so if Chucky struggles with face offs on a given night, Eller can slot in. This insulates Chucky, if he shines at C, then Habs have trade options at C but depth at this position is GOLD in the NHL so trade with caution (hello Rangers after Stephan injury for example).

 The D

Emelin - Subban

Markov - Gilbert

Beaulieu - Weaver

Tinordi/Pateryn

In the net

Price

Tokarski

Habs have trade chips, some cap space and some needs so I fully expect Bergevin to tinker with this team as the season unfolds.

Habs needs are (IMO):

1- A big scoring top 6 winger (much like most NHL teams by the way)

2- A physical bottom 6 player to help out Prust because Habs will need some added toughness as the year progresses.

Trade chips:

Budaj, Moen, Plekanec/Desharnais, some of the young D in Hamilton.

My prediction:

Barring catastrophic injuries, the Habs will battle for top spot in the division. They are, in my opinion a playoff lock. Bergevin will make a few moves to improve the team but will stick to his youth movement plan (yes this still requires some veterans....unless you wish to become the Oilers).

In the playoffs, the Habs can do some damage if they add a bit of grit to the lineup.

If Chucky performs well at C, Bergevin may consider trading a centreman. The decision will depend on what he wants back and on trade value. 

There are 2 potential scenarios in my opinion:

Trade Plekanec  if Habs think Eller can take over Pleks duties as a 2-way player. Plek has the most value in terms of return, has a higher cap hit and is older. I would be sad to see this happen. This means:

Desharnais

Galchenyuk

Eller

Malhotra

Trade Desharnais if Habs feel Eller cannot take over no 14 duties. Desharnais has a decent contract considering his production. His value is less than Plekanec but he is tradeable. This means:

Plekanec

Galchenyuk

Eller

Malhotra

Time will tell!

Habs off-saison report

This will be my humble attempt at evaluating the Montreal Canadian’s off-season (thus far). This will be a largely qualitative evaluation; you will find no advanced stats here! If that is your cup of tea, there are far more capable writers who use them out there!

I will cover the trades & signings and end with a “projected” line up as well as with a bit of predicting concerning the upcoming season.

So, here we go….

Section 1: Departures & Acquisitions

The Habs let go or traded a few players. For the most part, these moves were smart, well calculated in terms of risk and fit in well with what the GM is trying to accomplish in terms of team building: a growing role for the young core in terms of leadership, smart usage of cap space and a more balanced line up (especially on defense this year). 

Trades:

Daniel Brière to the Avalanche for P.A. Parenteau and a 5th round pick 

This trade was a pleasant surprise. Bergevin got a younger & more productive player for a player that had no real role or place in the lineup. Parenteau can be an effective 2nd line winger. Brière had no role to play here anymore and trading him was smart. Getting a top 6 winger for him was pretty impressive. It remains to be seen how Parenteau shapes out in Montreal but the move was smart. 

Josh Gorges to Buffalo for a 2nd round pick

That one also surprised me because Gorges was a key member of the leadership group in the Habs. He was a victim of the cap in many ways (his cap hit of 3.9m for another 4 years) but also of team balance on defense (the need to have d-men playing on their natural side). His leadership on and off the ice will be missed and the challenge will be left to the young core players to fill this void. The move itself cleared cap space (which was well used by Bergevin to sign 2 d-men). 

Let go / walked away:

Brian Gionta

The Captain left for Buffalo who threw too much money and term at him. The Habs were smart to walk away from this one. His departure leaves a gap at RW and in terms of leadership but the cap hit and term were just not digestible for the Habs at this point and considering Gionta’ s age. His departure opens up a spot for a young winger (De la Rose, Andrigetto…) or for a trade. 

Ryan White, George Parros, Douglas Murray, Francis Bouillon…

All these players were either easily replaceable or no longer needed. Their departure will not negatively impact the Habs in any way, shape or form.

Signed:

Jiri Sekac W

 

This came out of nowhere (for me at least) but it is an interesting, low-risk / high reward move. His deal is a reasonable 925 000$ + bonuses for 2 years.  This winger can potentially end up on Plekanec’s wing. He has KHL experience and can fill a void on the wing. He has decent size and seems to have some skill. He is one of the players who can compete for a winger position at camp. 

Tom Gilbert D



This is a solid signing in my opinion. Gilbert is a puck moving d-man with size and he allows the Habs to move Emelin back to his natural side. The signing is reasonable and short term. Gilbert also plugs a gaping hole as the Habs now have a viable 2nd PP unit with him. It also means every d-pair now has a good to great puck mover. 

Manny Malhotra C

A good addition that completes what has the makings of a pretty good 4th line. Malhotra is also a face-off specialist, something the Habs have lacked for a while. He has size and can play quality hockey for the 9-10 minutes the 4th line is likely to get each game. 

Mike “Dream” Weaver D

I was glad to see this player re-signed. He is a reliable bottom pair guy who is also great on the PK, blocks shots & is a steady. This is a solid replacement for Gorges at a 3rd of the price. He is an older veteran and that should help steady the defense and mentor the younger d-men. 

Dale Weise W

 

Weise was a surprise last season after he was acquired. Bergevin did a good job of re-signing this player at a reasonable deal (term and cap hit). He completes a solid 4th line and has shown he can be moved to the third line if needed for spot duty. His speed, size and grit are all welcome attributes on this Habs lineup.

 

Lars Eller C

Solid deal. Good term (4 years) and cap hit (3.5m). It is now up to Eller to “earn” this deal through more consistent play. He had great playoffs after an abysmal season. Habs need him to be more constant and to mature into his projected role as a 3rd or 2nd center that can play the shutdown role. 

Andrei Markov D

 

This deal was met with varied reactions. Some howled in protest and anger, some welcomed the deal or celebrated it. Markov is an older player and had injuries in the past. However, for the past 2 seasons he has been a veritable ironman. His on-ice vision is not diminished nor is his elite passing ability. He should hopefully slot in nicely on the 2nd pair with 1st wave PP time as that, in my opinion, would maximize his usage and durability. The contract term angered some. The cap hit did too, even if Markov signed for the same money he was making before. To me, this deal is reasonable for a guy who is a Hab for life, is still an elite PP QB in terms of vision and passing and is still reliable defensively. He just needs to play on the 2nd pairing! The other issue is that to replace him, the Habs would have had to pay dearly and likely hand out a dumb contract (see Niskanen deal in Washington). As it stands, Markov can help ease in the younger d-men. 

Pernell Karl Subban D

 

Superb signing. The negotiations and the drama they produced were epic and for the most part made me chuckle. I was surprised it took so long to get a deal done but this was a pretty big contract (biggest in Habs history) and both sides were playing a game of brinksmanship poker. I for one do not believe for a second that the time it took to get the deal done was all the Habs fault. I think each side knew perfectly well what it was doing and that a deal would be reached. I also do not buy the “Molson/Habs panicked” theory nor the “Habs never loved or respected Subban” theory. This was a hard fought business deal that seems to have been hammered out in respect. The deal itself is massive but fair to both parties. I assumed it would be 8 x 8 but it ended up being 9 x 8.  At the end of the day the Habs locked up a key member of their young core and he was happy to sign (see his radio conference). The shots taken at Bergevin by fans during the negotiations varied from hilarious to pretty sad and disturbing. Subban took the time to comment on those and defend his GM extensively. This went well beyond lip service or PR on PK’s part and that is an excellent sign for everyone involved.

Analysis

How does it all shape out now that these moves have been discussed?

Here my projection for the opening lineup:

Forwards

Pacioretty – Desharnais – Parenteau 

Galchenyuk – Plekanec – Sekac

Bourque – Eller – Gallagher

Prust – Malhotra – Weise

*Moen, Bournival or a kid from the AHL

I feel Sekac may have an edge due to his KHL experience. It is also possible Gallagher remains with DD and Patches and that Parenteau plays with either Plekanec or Eller. If Sekac does not make the team outright, one of the kids (De la rose, Andrigetto) may slide into the lineup or Weise/Prust may be bumped to the 3rd line while Moen slots in on the 4th line. Habs also have to consider Bournival. He showed he can be a NHLer last year and his speed is a big asset to this team. He may find a spot on the 4th line or the 3rd line depending on the moves management makes.

The Habs are still week on the Wings and the issue of Galchenyuk at center is still not resolved (when he will move there…). 

Defensemen

Emelin – Subban

Markov – Gilbert

Beaulieu – Weaver

*Tinordi or Pateryn or a signed veteran

The D is far more balanced this year by having d-men all play on their natural sides. I feel Emelin will be given a shot as PK’s partner but the situation remains fluid. I put Beaulieu ahead of Tinordi because I think he overtook the bigger d-man in terms of development. This is not a shot on Tinordi, I just feel big d-men tend to take longer to develop. I would not be shocked to see Tinordi get another half season of development with the Bulldogs. It is also possible Tinordi beats out Beaulieu at camp for a position on the bottom pair with Weaver. It is also possible Bergevin who loves collecting d-men will sign a veteran d-men to add depth. That could mean that veteran is the 7th d-man which would send one of the kids back to the Bulldogs. Depending how Gilbert & Emelin do, the top two pairs could see some juggling. Still overall, the D now is more mobile and has at least one puck mover on each pair. 

Goaltending

Price

Budaj or Tokarski

No question marks between the pipes in terms of Price. Who the backup will be is still up for debate. It is quite possible the Habs simply keep Budaj but it is also possible he gets traded or waived and that Tokarski ends up as the backup this year. This could mean Price plays around 64-65 games leaving Tokarski with roughly 20 starts. I feel this could be smart in terms of resting Price and keeping him fresher for the playoffs. 

How does this lineup look?

The youth movement has continued but the team also signed some key veterans. The defense is more balanced and the Habs have a hole on the wing. They also have decisions to make at center. If they wish to move Galchenyuk to center, they will need to trade one of their top 3 centers because none of them can play wing effectively. The debate for such a trade will be between Desharnais and Plekanec. Each scenario has advantages and disadvantages. Each of these players brings a different game to the Habs. One thing is also clear, some fans clearly overestimate the “depth” the Habs have at center and how the team somehow has a “logjam” at that position…

Let’s look at each scenario

Trade Desharnais

He is tradable (despite what some fans choose to think). His contract is good for what he brings. Trading him means Galchenyuk is slotted in on the top 2 lines as an offensive center. That dumps the kid in a high pressure situation right away. The impact on the lineup will be felt in terms of face offs and offense (positively or negatively). In such a scenario, Plecanek is your defacto number 1 center while Galchenyuk matures. Eller stays in the number 3 slot with added defensive responsibilities. If Galchenyuk falters, the Habs will hurt on offense. Such a trade could affect Pacioretty who is Desharnais’s buddy. This needs to be considered but the big guy also should be professional enough to handle this trade…

Trade Plekanec

This is a completely different scenario and may be risker yet more rewarding in terms of what the Habs get back. Let’s be clear, Plekanec is the Habs best trade chip at center. He will get you more back than Desharnais. Trading him however means two risks: Galchenyuk at center is no certain thing at first and Eller has to become the high end shutdown center now to fill the hole left by Plekanec. This option is risker for the Habs current lineup. 

My take:

If I had to choose, I would trade Desharnais and keep Plekanec because that is safer. However, if the Habs want to plug that hole on the wing in their top 6, trading Plekanec makes more sense. I personally think Bergevin will not trade away one of his centers now and that Galchenyuk will spend some time on the wing to start the year. Perhaps by mid-season, if Galchenyuk has had time at center and shown he can handle himself, then Bergevin may entertain trading Plekanec or Desharnais. This will also depend on how Eller does…so this looks like a wait and see thing.

I also expect Moen and Budaj to be moved/waived. Moen seems to be an odd man out and his cap hit makes him pricey for a press box spare forward. Habs also have to do something about Bournival. He can be an effective bottom 6 guy.  Budaj seems like he will be moved and I think Tokarski will be a good backup as he develops. Should Price get hurt again (god forbid) having Tokarski as the backup means the Habs can maybe carry on for bit in better shape than with Budaj taking over. 

In conclusion, the Habs still need a big top 6 scoring winger, this needs to be addressed at some point either internally or via trade. As the summer winds down, Bergevin may yet make a move or two…

TROY IS BURNING! TROY IS BURNING! 

Subban hysteria hits Montreal after arbitration hearing

This will be my take on the PK Subban and the Montreal Canadiens situation. I warn anyone reading this, I ABHOR people who refuse to see that every situation has two sides. This post will be in line with that kind of perspective: a two sided situation. 

If you are a Subban fanatic who takes what his now going on as some personal affront, if you participated in the sad online pogrom aimed at firing Bergevin or if you are a Subban basher, well this might not be a good read for you. Fans are fans, but this situation has shown the more lunatic and hysteric side of Habs nation. 

Let me get one thing out of the way first: I am a big fan of PK Subban the player. I love what he brings to the game, I want him signed long term in Montreal so I can see him truly mature into an elite defenceman. He is nearly there now and for the most part he has reached that level through various parts of his game. I think he is an important part of this team being built. I am NOT siding with the Canadiens' management either.  

Ok, now that this is out of the way, here is my take on this situation...

I did not expect Subban and the Habs to go to arbitration and a long term deal may yet be signed (seems like a long shot) before the ruling. I was of the opinion that this would get done at 7.5 - 8.5 per season for 6 to 8 years. 

The fact Subban filed for arbitration was NOT a surprise, it was a normal process as far as I am concerned. The numbers that were floated online (Habs and Subbans arbitration demands) were also not surprising as this is a normal part of the process. 

How do I see whats going on? This is a big stakes game being played between the Habs and Subban/his agent. Each side is playing the cards they have. Subban's camp has played this superbly as far as I am concerned. He won the PR battle hands down this time. This is part of the process and part of any negociation. The Habs have their position, Subban has his. Apparently the two sides are unwilling to budge on something. Too many people have jumped in and blamed the Habs 100%. That is in my opinion an emotion fueled response and a rash judgement based on very incomplete information. 

Very little is known of the negotiations, some numbers were floated around twitter but nothing was clearly  or officially substantiated. This lack of hard evidence did not stop fans, pundits and sadly some media from fanning the flames and firing full bore on the Habs while painting Subban as some sort of victim. 

Some has said Habs lacked respect for Subban, did not "love" him (that was is particularly silly IMO), wanted to push him out of town (sillier) and so on. Once again, this is a negociation for a long term and rich contract. It is complicated and it involves more than a raw number per season and a set number of years. The CBA has to be considered, as does the salary cap and importantly the team structure. Subban is a great player but no player, no matter how good can be bigger than the team. This is not to say Subban see's himself that way, this is for the more rabid fans out there who clamor "pay him whatever he wants nowwwwwwwwwww". That is not how team is run. 

The GM has to think of the entire roster, of the future and of how he wishes to make his team a perennial contender and a competitive team every year. It is certain the GM wishes to sign Subban, thinking otherwise is a bit silly in my opinion. It is also clear the player wants to stay here. I think Subban means it when he says he wants to be a Hab for life. 

Common ground has to be reached and it may not be reached now. 

If the arbitration results in a 1 year 7M deal, the Earth will not explode and the Habs will not spontaneously combust. The GM can then start negocicating an extension after January 1st 2015 and an arbitration deal does not mean Subban is gone. 

I for one still hope to see Subban signed long term before the ruling or after January 1st. I am also aware that no player is untouchable in this league (see Gretzky, Wayne). Any player can be traded and this includes Subban. If somehow Subban lets it known to Habs management that he is not interested in re-signing with the club next year, well, the GM is smart enough to trade him. 

So, let us all take a deep breath, relax and take this with some perspective. This may take a while. There will be more wild online speculation and tons of unsubstantiated information tossed out there. My advice: take this with a grain of salt and exercise caution before drawing hasty conclusions!

The Coach

Lets get one thing out of the way before proceeding further with this post: no coach ever built will ever satisfy Montreal Canadiens Fans. Heck, Scotty Bowman would be vilified by fans today for every line change, practice, handling of a player, in-game decision. This brings us to the current skipper of the Habs, Michel Therrien. As I said, no coach satisfies fans in Montreal but the Therrien hate is on a whole different level. Some seem unable to let go of Therrien 1.0 who coached in Montreal as a rookie and got fired ingloriously. The same Michel Therrien, reloaded and after a while got hired by the Penguins. He took them to the Cup finals and lost to Detroit. The following season he was canned and replaced by Bylsma who promptly won the cup with the team Therrien had molded. This happens a lot in sports. Thus Therrien vanished from the coaching ranks and worked in media. Then he was hired by new GM M. Bergevin. The coach that Bergevin hired is Therrien 2.0, yet it took a while for many fans to see the difference, myself included. 

Let me be blunt, I was not a fan of the hire when it happened. However, a maxim says that only fools don't change their minds. As a fan, I saw a team that went from in 2012 to a playoff team in 2013 and now to a Conference finalist in 2014. Since taking over the Habs Therrien's regular season record is 75-72-13. Let that sink in for a second and then consider that the calls to fire him are still heard. Let us assume that this is just part of the wild and often disturbing thing that Habsnation can be and move on. 

When he was hired and since then, when the more viral criticism surfaces (mostly online or on radio call in shows) you will here sewer-worthy rants on why Therrien got the job. The most popular one is that the only reason he was hired is because he is French. That accusation is popular and in my opinion a bit innaccurate and dishonest. Therrien was hired because he is competent, the fact he speaks french is a market requirement that makes perfect sense. It is an asset that Habs ownership and management sees as being critical in a Head Coach. It is in response to the fact that the bulk of the fan base (ie the Habs clients) are of francophone origin. By the way, Therrien also speaks excellent English and communicates with his players in that language, so he is not unilingual french. That gets lost in the mix however. The Habs have made and will continue to make a choice to focus on coaching candidates that speak french so I guess people should be used to it by now. This has led to bad hires (Tremblay, Carbonneau...) but also to great ones (Julien, Vigneault, Demers, Burns. 

Therrien has 1 year left on his contract and everyone knows he will get an extension between now and the start of the 2014-15 season. He will not get fired, so those pining for Therrien being tarred and feathered and run out of town will just have to put away their pitchforks and torches for a while. I am sure they will be back in full force after the first practice in training camp. 

I think this coach fully deserves a contract extension and my guess is he will get 3 years on top of the year that he has left on his current deal. This would be fair considering his accomplishments. He has produced two winning seasons and one deep playoff drive in his time at the helm. He has done this with a team that is re-tooling and still growing. This would cut most coaches some slack with fans, not so in Montreal!

 I think that like every other coach out there, Therrien makes mistakes. I also think he did some pretty good things with this team and with his players. Coaches are always stuck in a lose-lose scenario. In Montreal is goes thusly:

Habs win: It was despite the coach

Habs lose: It is entirely Therrien's fault.

Player performs/develops: It is despite Therrien (see the Subban mania)

Player does not perform/fails to develop now: It is Therrien's fault

Yet under Therrien's tutelage, some pretty impressive players have grown in leaps and bounds. This is in part due to these players taking ownership of their own development, or maturing if you will but it is also due in part to the coach and his staff. PK Subban  and Carey Price come to mind here. These two core-players have taken huge strides in the past 2 seasons, each in their own way. The coach holding back player development or performance lament is not new, heck Guy Lafleur said Scotty Bowman's only contribution to the Habs winning or to his performances was Scotty opening and closing the gate of the players bench. If you pay attention, the same lament is heard when it comes to Subban. I personally think Subban has all the tools to be an elite d-man in this league. In fact, he is there already. He became that elite d-man under Therrien for the most part and won a Norris in the process. Subban deserves credit for his achievements but guess what, so does the coach! 

The point in all this is that Therrien is winning. As an NHL-level coach, he has a winning record (287-224-24(ties)-57). His performance in Montreal since his return fully deserves an extension. However, the most anti-therrien fans can take solace in one thing: at some point Therrien will get fired or he will retire. That is the nature of the beast for NHL coaches. When this happens, these fans can change the focus of their frustrations and aim their rants at the new coach or GM who will also not be the "right" one for the Habs. 

The question to ask is which coach IS the right one for Montreal? I personally think he does not exist. 

Habs post-mortem: A team on the upswing

It is the morning after, a night has passed since the painful elimination of the Montreal Canadiens at the hands of the New York Rangers in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. the Rangers played a perfect Game 6 and the Habs simply could not pierce through the defensive coverage. The game ended 1-0 and the Habs should feel no shame. I am not one of those people who thinks the Habs gave up or failed to show up last night. I saw a team that battled, tried hard but ran up against a Blueshirts team that left them no room or space. I also saw a Habs team that may have run out of gas to some degree but also a team that took the Rangers to 6 games without Carey Price after he went down to injury. 

Now, on a calm Friday morning in Montreal, the sun has risen, the birds are chirping and the Habs season is over. Why am I not bitter and gloomy? In previous playoff runs, I was usually sadder and gloomier when Les Glorieux were eliminated. So what has changed?

Simply put, for the first time in a long, long time, this team is on the upswing and this playoff run thus feels legitimate. The team has a solid young core of players and interesting choices to make this off season. They are well managed from the GM's office to the bench. The progression of this team is pretty interesting. 

Before I get into my Habs season post-mortem and into my off-season game plan, let me be up front: I am not a card carrying member of the advanced stats tell the whole story club. I use these stats as a complement to my evaluation of the Habs, not as the tool that defines players. If you want advanced stats  based analysis, there are tons of great sites managed by dedicated people who can offer that to you. In here you will get a more qualitative approach, a bit more informal. You have been warned! 

Character you say?

Character is a word that was bandied about by Bergevin and Therrien throughout the season and in the playoffs. when the Habs acquired or signed a player, the word character was used to explain why. Some fans got tired of this, some found it funny. It made me chucked to hear Habs management repeat it over and over and then the season and the playoffs unfolded and character was shown to have been the defining core trait of this team. A group of players that did not give up, that got off the mat each time they were knocked down, that battled and clawed their way to the playoffs. This team's character was on full display in the playoffs right up to the end in the big Apple. For that, Bergevin and Therrien deserve full marks. 

Off-Season Game Plan

This is my view of what is ahead for the Habs. I will not discuss the draft as I have not had time to look into who the Habs can get. I will thus focus on players that should be re-signed, let go or traded and on what is ahead in broad terms. 

Going into the off-season the Habs have to work with a 71M Cap. The following players are UFA:

T. Vanek, B. Gionta, G. Parros, A. Markov, F. Bouillon, D. Murray, M. Weaver

The RFAs: 

PK Subban, L. Eller, D. Weise, R. White

Taking all their salaries out of the equation, the Habs have roughly 26M in Cap Space. Of course that number is not real because the Habs will clearly re-sign some of these players. 

To me the keepers here are as follows (contracts are just my estimation):

PK Subban (8 years, 8M per)

L. Eller (4-5 years, 4.5-5M per)

A. Markov (2-3 years, 6M per)

D. Weise (2-3 years, 2M per)

These guys will be signed in my opinion. 

Subban is the team's #1 Dman, he is a critical element of the core and a leader. Eller is blossoming into the team's 3rd centre, Markov can be a good 3rd dman on this team and a superb PP QB as well as a mentor for young D. Weise is what the Habs want and need: a big player with speed, heart and grit. 

Beyond that I do not know what management will choose to do. 

What are the Habs needs? 

I think a true no 2 Dman that can play with Subban is needed. 

I also think another big winger is needed. I do not see the Habs signing Vanek so he needs to be replaced. 

What are the Habs options?

1- Go with youth

This means bringing up kids from the farm. This can work on defense as the Habs have Tinordi, Beaulieu and Pateryn. The other young Dmen are not as close to or NHL ready in my opinion. 

Up front, the Habs pool of forwards is rather thin in terms of top 6, NHL ready players and by thin I actually mean empty for now. Some interesting forwards will play in Hamilton next year: McCarron, DeLarose, perhaps Connor Crisp?

If the Habs go with youth, they will need to either re-sign a few vets up front of trade to get what they need.

I do not see the Habs going with youth as a full on option. The team is beyond that now. 

2- Dip into the free agency pool

I am no big fan of this and happily for me, neither is Bergevin. He seems to use the free agency pool to fill specific supporting cast roles (Brière, Prust, Murray) at reasonable prices. I am comfortable with that approach as I think Free Agent Frenzy is a mad house where teams grossly overpay (ah hum David Clarkson). 

Looking at this summers pool of players, there are intriguing names and I think that perhaps Bergevin might dip his toes in the pool for some. 

3- Wheel, Deal, re-sign and youth: the blended approach

This is what I see happening this off-season. I think Bergevin can trade for reinforcements while re-signing key players (the keepers I named before). 

Who I think is trade bait on the Habs?

Travis Moen

Useful 3rd or 4th liner, big body, good on the PK, reasonable contract. 

Peter Budaj

Good backup, reasonable contract with one year left. 

Thomas Plekanec

Great two-way centre, 2 years left at 5M, team guy, durable. 

Josh Gorges

Durable, tough as nails, shot blocking machine with leadership.

Rene Bourque

Enigmatic Rene is hard to peg. Is he the deadbeat of the past 2 regular seasons of the stud of this year's playoff run? 

To me Budaj and Moen are no brainers. They can be traded as Tokarski replaces Budaj and Weise replaces Moen. 

Saying Plekanec is trade bait hurts me. i absolutely love him as a player. He is a solid hockey player. However the Habs have a surplus at Centre and Galchenyuk needs to start his transition to that position. Plekanec is also the Habs best trade chip and can get a good return. Properly packaged he can likely get a true #2 D-man. Just trade him to the far reaches of the Western Conference please!

I see Desharnais as a transition player at centre until the Habs finally settle that position's problem. With a big winger, DD can produce offensively. He simply cannot be the teams #1 centre. I am not opposed to trading him but I do not see it happening. 

Plekanec is older and will bring back more. 

Gorges is one of those guys I would hate to see being traded but if the Habs want to make room on D he may be a good trade option and he would garner interest. 

Key trade targets have to be that #2 Dman and a big winger who can score (like every other team out there). 

The one free agent I see as an option is Paul Stastny of Colorado. He would be a good addition at centre if the Habs make room for him of course. He will however be in the middle of a silly bidding war and thus will likely demand an inflated contract. If they sign him, the top 3 centre-line looks thus: Stastny, DD, Eller. The issue is Chucky and when you move him at C. 

If you do not sign a centre and trade Plekanec, then your top 3 c-line looks thus: DD, Galchenyuk, Eller. 

With Stastny you get the option of grooming Chucky a bit longer and you allow Eller to grow into the full-time role of shut down C on a 3rd line that can also score. 

Conclusion

Habs are on the upswing, they are evolving into a contender. Their core is rock solid and young with Price, Subban, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Eller and company. They still needs veterans to mentor and stabilize this core and guys like Markov can do that while guys like Beaulieu grow into their roles. 

It is fun to be Habs fan again, lets all enjoy it....

Oh and as a closing remark, you can be sure this guy will get a 3-4 year contract extension. :)

On to the draft and off-season...but I  will also be watching the Cup Finals. Go Hawks or Go Kings!