The Plan, the team and the players: normal evolution

Habs GM Marc Beregin and his coach Michel Therrien, along with the rest of the team management team have been working according to a team plan and structure that will lead the Habs to become a regular contender at some point in the near future. When this all started the Habs had just finished at the bottom of the NHL and then there was the lockout. Coming out of the lockout, Bergevin started showing signs of what his plan was: make the team younger (when the kids are ready), deeper, bigger and more structurally sound. This would be done without trading blue chip prospects or top draft picks. 

Looking at the moves made by the Habs, they have stuck to this plan. Bergevin has also managed to sign players to very reasonable deals in terms of length and cap hit. This means the Habs have room to maneuver but also that players are for the most part all trade chips if need be.  

Most recently we have seen proof of this with Moen being traded what has proved to be a very useful Sergei Gonchar. All the while saving precious cap space for this summer with the unloading of Moen's deal. Bourque was also moved, along with his contract for a depth dman whose contract expires. Bergevin collects dmen and this will not change. This means the Habs are deep on D and can hopfully deal well with injuries there. Before fans whine and cry about these two old d-men Bergevin acquired, look at their deals: they expire this summer. That tells you that these guys are there for depth but also to allow the Habs to properly develop Tinordi and Beaulieu. That is the smart and patient approach that Bergevin uses and while fans may cry about it, demand he "lets the kids play", this will only happen when he and the coach feel its time and when the kids force themselves onto the lineup through play. Then and only then will Bergevin move someone to make room or will Therrien sit a vet to let a kid play. This is how this team is run and their record since Bergevin and Therrien took over says they seem to be doing something right. 

When you look at contracts and young players coming up you can see how the Habs being patient with Galchenyuk may have paid off. They put him at center when they felt he was ready. David Desharnais, the focus of much hatred and bashing from fans, was moved to the 3rd line at center and then on the wing when Eller returned. This was all very predictable in my opinion. Desharnais got a deal that screamed temporary solution. 3.5M for 4 years is a very reasonable deal for a playmaking 2C or 3C that produces 45-50 points per season. That kid was put in as 1st center by default and until chucky was ready. Now that this has happened and if Eller grabs onto his opportunity at center, Desharnais will be traded. Not to disappoint his haters but he is not that hard to trade. His deal is reasonable and he has shown he can produce when put in the right spot. He is also a hard worker. I figured Desharnais was always vulnerable to trade and that is fine by me. I hope the kid lands in a good spot. 

For all this to happen, Eller has to produce on a regular basis and be present and accounted for in terms of effort everynight. If he goes to sleep for a while, you can expect him to be moved to the wing to wake him up and then Desharnais could slide back in at Center. 

On defence, Beaulieu has been playing since injuries occurred. He has done well in my opinion but he needs to do a bit more to win a regular spot. I am not of the school of thought that he should be playing top 4 or nothing. I am perfectly comfortable with Beaulieu playing on the bottom pair and EARNING more ice time. Tinordi will be called up at some point to show if he has progressed according to what the team asked of him. Before losing your minds, consider that Duncan Keith in Chicago played TWO FULL SEASONS in the AHL before earning a spot with Chicago. Also consider what Detroit does with their prospects, keeping them in the AHL longer. There is not just one way to develop young players and the Habs seem to be using the slow and patient approach. The things is, they can afford too! Their core is young and maturing and they have good veterans for now. Bergevin is not building to patch for this year, he wants long term success and for this to happen he needs young players to develop properly. 

Notes and tidbits:

1- Subban while enjoying a decent season, is not playing like a true #1 dman yet. I am sure he will be fine but he needs to pick it up a little bit. Danny Dubé, a pretty competent hockey analyst provided some insight on this. As he observed, Subban seems to be coasting a bit more out there, perhaps to save some energy. This is hurting his game. Not a bad theory. Subban may also be feeling the pressure of his mammoth deal and trying to do too much. This should all fall into place soon. 

2- Gilbert while excelling with breakout passes is proving to be a liability in many other situations. This may correct itself but there is a reason he only got a 2 year deal!

3- Malhotra may be a stud on face offs but he has 1 point this year after 30+ games. He needs to produce a bit more and if he slips in face off proficiency at all, he will lose his spot.

4- Bergevin did not force Therrien to do anything with the lineup. Thinking that in my opinion means that one does not understand the Bergevin - Therrien relationship very well at all. They do consult with each other but I am convinced Therrien has the final call on the line up. 

5- Emelin is an adventure...one night he can be great then he can be a skating disaster the other night. One hopes that at some point he will settle down!

6- 67-27-11 looks like a solid line but with all due respect Gallagher is NOT a 1st line RW. This will need to be addressed at some point.

7- Parenteau seems like a good fit on the 3rd line, I think he may click with Eller. 

8- Sekac is something to watch. He has really found his groove since being sent to the pressbox. This may have been a good learning experience for him: bring it everynight.

9- Price is well...Price...just give him the Molson Cup for the rest of the year.

10- Prust is back to his old self. He is such a versatile player and a team guy. Great guy to have in your line up. 

HABS AT 30 GAMES (+1): WHO ARE THEY?

As we are now past the 30 game mark, its time to ask ourselves who these Habs are? First the basic facts:

Record: 19-10-2

Rank: 3rd in their division (1 pt out of first), 4th in the conference (1pt from first)

This taken on its on is pretty impressive. It would say the Habs are a top tier team in the East. The underlying numbers tell a different story:

1- Habs tend to have horrid starts and typically spot the opposition the 1st and sometimes 2nd goal

2- Habs tend to get outshot on a regular basis

3- Habs goal differencial is a pedestrian +4 (thanks to 6-2 win over Kings last night)

4- Habs PP is a bottom feeder

So, how did this team manage to end up 1 point from 1st after 30+ games? The answer would be goaltending, opportunistic scoring and a bit of luck. 

In my opinion, the Habs are still a developing team that is grooming some kids and positioning itself to be a steady contender. The encouraging signs are there in terms of young players and prospects. What happened, again in my opinion, is that last year's playoff run warped fans perceptions and thus their expectations. Management however is clearly not fooled and has held the course development wise. This is evident in the way they have approached their two young d-men (Tinordi and Beaulieu). They gave each a fair shot at camp and early on and neither of them showed that he truly belonged. Instead of throwing them into the fire on a bottom D pair, the Habs sent the two back to the AHL tlo log heavy minutes and to develop certain aspects of their games. Then Bergevin acquired veteran depth at D to give them and his team time to let the young D develop. This should tell you all you need to know about Bergevin and his plan. As a point of reference, Duncan Keith spent two full seasons in the AHL before cracking the Blackhawks as a regular Dman (2003-2005). Bergevin is clearly applying the patient development method but the team will also make room for young players who force their way onto the lineup through their play (Galchenyuk and Gallagher a couple of years ago stand out). The two young D are seen as top 4 material. It seems apparent the Habs want them playing in their top 4 in the future, hence they are adopting a careful development method with them.

That should tell you all you need to know about this team: they will take their time developing their players because they see things in the long term as opposed to right now. To be honest, what has the "right now" approach done for the Habs before Bergevin arrived? The answer a middling to bad team that got patched every year. I for one prefer the patient approach that is FINALLY being used by the Canadiens. 

Kids will get spots in the line up when they EARN THEM. 

Veterans will get a bit more slack because that is how all pro sports work. A veteran who has a track record will get a bit more leeway if he struggles. 

This brings me to the issue of balance...

Every team needs a mix of young players, young veterans and veterans with experience. That is how you WIN. The "play the kids" chant while highly entertaining has moved into the ludicrous zone with many Habs fans. I am all for giving young players a shot but some balance is needed and more to the point management has to be ready to act if certain kids show they are not ready. I prefer being patient than seeing a player burnt out because he was rushed to the lineup. 

So, that brings me back to my original point: Habs are still developing. This progression may go faster or slower at times and fans need to be aware of this. For once we have a smart management team. Let them do their work!

If the Habs continue to play with fire, they will get burnt. That will happen when Price cannot save the team from disaster. The team needs to improve overall D-play and to generate more offense. The PP also needs to get going because while it does not win you most of your games, it can make a significant difference in certain games with that timely goal or two. 

Going forward the Habs have needs to address. They need a true no 2-3 Dman and a top 6 (or even top 3) RW. 

They have chips to trade and at some point you can expect Bergevin to make that blockbuster trade. He will do that when the time is ripe and one thing is for sure, no one will see it coming!

Other tidbits and issues

1- Habs will shed 2-3 dmen this summer. Gonchar, Allan and Weaver will all see their deals expire. That means SPOTS will be available for the kids but also valuable CAP ROOM for the Habs. I expect the team to get one veteran d-man, if possible a top 4 one via trade before that happens. 

2- Gallagher contract was another Bergevin homerun. I expect the same with Galchenyuk (not same money but a smart deal). Bergevin is cemeting his reputation as a solid GM. 

3- Centre line is looking interesting. Desharnais ran out of rope or hung himself with his own rope (whatever you prefer). When Eller returns, it will get interesting but I think that unless Desharnais catches fire on the third line or unless Galchenyuk turns into a Titanic-like disaster on the first line, he will be the odd man out. In my opinion, Desharnais was always a short term solution for the Habs at centre. His deal proves that: 3.5M for 4 years is a pedestrian deal for a 45-50pt centre. Yes that is what he is a playmaking 45-50pt per year centre. The Habs cast him as their 1st line C by default (much like Koivu was misscast for most of his years in MTL and NO I am NOT saying they are comparable players). Desharnais is really an offensive playmaking 2C. His defensive game is not that great. He needs to be used based on that to be effective. I think the Habs centre line will be Galchenyuk - Plekanec - Eller sooner than later. If Eller shows he can produce on a constant basis then Plekanec may become your 3C on a shutdown line as he gets older. Desharnais will be traded and contrary to demented popular opinion a 45-50pt playmaking center at 3.5M per season for 2 more years is a tradeable asset. 

4- Last week Bergevin came out and said something that should resonate with fans of all ilks. The statement went something like: the Habs will, at equal talent, pick the francophone player. The coach will speak French, that is a must. Now this should be clear enough that some fans will get that this is a Habs management decision top to bottom as Molson has stated as much too. These initiatives speak to the history and culture of the team and of the place where they play. This does not mean settling for less. The Habs have over the years hired some good to great french speaking coaches. Just for shit and giggles: Julien (1 Cup win, 1 Cup appearance), Vigneault (2 cup appearances), Therrien (1 cup appearance), Martin (boring as heck but decent record as a coach overall), There are quality french speaking coaches out there and the Habs recognize the importance of this for the bulk of their fans. That is not to say that if Mike Babcock became available and the Habs were looking for a new coach that he would not be a candidate. Concerning francophone players the policy seems reasonable as well. At equivalent talent (in terms of overall game) the team will choose a francophone player. Then again, Timmins is a superb scout and would not pass up a player he wants in the 2nd round to pick a francophone player. There will always be fans who will say a player or coach was drafted or hired ONLY because he speaks French. That is manure and it is pretty ugly prejudice. Perhaps one day it will disappear or be swept under the rug but with twitter that is unlikely. Venturing out on twitter or reading various blogs you can get a pretty complete tour of the sewers when it comes to this issue. 

5- When Desharnais is traded, I wonder which player will become the target of the posse. They seem to need a target on a visceral level. I mean Desharnais has been demoted to the 3rd line, gets next to no PP time and some of the uglier fans still attack the kid with insults and demeaning comments. You would think he was making 7M per season, oh wait that was Gomez. So when Desharnais gets traded, the posse will turn on someone else to vomit on. Therrien might get the brunt of it...hmmm...see a trend there? No that is just, in the words of Ralph of the Simpsons UMPOSSIBLE. 

6- Bold prediction: Habs will make the playoffs and will battle for top 3 in the division. Bergevin will continue to wheel and deal to mold the team into what he wants. 

7- My Niners will get thumped in Seattle this weekend. This season has been a disaster.

8-  The Maple Laffs are showing signs of life...will it last?

9- That guy in Detroit sure can coach....

10- Lecavalier will not be traded to Montreal. His contract and his play make him a player you stay away from.