Habs off-saison report

This will be my humble attempt at evaluating the Montreal Canadian’s off-season (thus far). This will be a largely qualitative evaluation; you will find no advanced stats here! If that is your cup of tea, there are far more capable writers who use them out there!

I will cover the trades & signings and end with a “projected” line up as well as with a bit of predicting concerning the upcoming season.

So, here we go….

Section 1: Departures & Acquisitions

The Habs let go or traded a few players. For the most part, these moves were smart, well calculated in terms of risk and fit in well with what the GM is trying to accomplish in terms of team building: a growing role for the young core in terms of leadership, smart usage of cap space and a more balanced line up (especially on defense this year). 

Trades:

Daniel Brière to the Avalanche for P.A. Parenteau and a 5th round pick 

This trade was a pleasant surprise. Bergevin got a younger & more productive player for a player that had no real role or place in the lineup. Parenteau can be an effective 2nd line winger. Brière had no role to play here anymore and trading him was smart. Getting a top 6 winger for him was pretty impressive. It remains to be seen how Parenteau shapes out in Montreal but the move was smart. 

Josh Gorges to Buffalo for a 2nd round pick

That one also surprised me because Gorges was a key member of the leadership group in the Habs. He was a victim of the cap in many ways (his cap hit of 3.9m for another 4 years) but also of team balance on defense (the need to have d-men playing on their natural side). His leadership on and off the ice will be missed and the challenge will be left to the young core players to fill this void. The move itself cleared cap space (which was well used by Bergevin to sign 2 d-men). 

Let go / walked away:

Brian Gionta

The Captain left for Buffalo who threw too much money and term at him. The Habs were smart to walk away from this one. His departure leaves a gap at RW and in terms of leadership but the cap hit and term were just not digestible for the Habs at this point and considering Gionta’ s age. His departure opens up a spot for a young winger (De la Rose, Andrigetto…) or for a trade. 

Ryan White, George Parros, Douglas Murray, Francis Bouillon…

All these players were either easily replaceable or no longer needed. Their departure will not negatively impact the Habs in any way, shape or form.

Signed:

Jiri Sekac W

 

This came out of nowhere (for me at least) but it is an interesting, low-risk / high reward move. His deal is a reasonable 925 000$ + bonuses for 2 years.  This winger can potentially end up on Plekanec’s wing. He has KHL experience and can fill a void on the wing. He has decent size and seems to have some skill. He is one of the players who can compete for a winger position at camp. 

Tom Gilbert D



This is a solid signing in my opinion. Gilbert is a puck moving d-man with size and he allows the Habs to move Emelin back to his natural side. The signing is reasonable and short term. Gilbert also plugs a gaping hole as the Habs now have a viable 2nd PP unit with him. It also means every d-pair now has a good to great puck mover. 

Manny Malhotra C

A good addition that completes what has the makings of a pretty good 4th line. Malhotra is also a face-off specialist, something the Habs have lacked for a while. He has size and can play quality hockey for the 9-10 minutes the 4th line is likely to get each game. 

Mike “Dream” Weaver D

I was glad to see this player re-signed. He is a reliable bottom pair guy who is also great on the PK, blocks shots & is a steady. This is a solid replacement for Gorges at a 3rd of the price. He is an older veteran and that should help steady the defense and mentor the younger d-men. 

Dale Weise W

 

Weise was a surprise last season after he was acquired. Bergevin did a good job of re-signing this player at a reasonable deal (term and cap hit). He completes a solid 4th line and has shown he can be moved to the third line if needed for spot duty. His speed, size and grit are all welcome attributes on this Habs lineup.

 

Lars Eller C

Solid deal. Good term (4 years) and cap hit (3.5m). It is now up to Eller to “earn” this deal through more consistent play. He had great playoffs after an abysmal season. Habs need him to be more constant and to mature into his projected role as a 3rd or 2nd center that can play the shutdown role. 

Andrei Markov D

 

This deal was met with varied reactions. Some howled in protest and anger, some welcomed the deal or celebrated it. Markov is an older player and had injuries in the past. However, for the past 2 seasons he has been a veritable ironman. His on-ice vision is not diminished nor is his elite passing ability. He should hopefully slot in nicely on the 2nd pair with 1st wave PP time as that, in my opinion, would maximize his usage and durability. The contract term angered some. The cap hit did too, even if Markov signed for the same money he was making before. To me, this deal is reasonable for a guy who is a Hab for life, is still an elite PP QB in terms of vision and passing and is still reliable defensively. He just needs to play on the 2nd pairing! The other issue is that to replace him, the Habs would have had to pay dearly and likely hand out a dumb contract (see Niskanen deal in Washington). As it stands, Markov can help ease in the younger d-men. 

Pernell Karl Subban D

 

Superb signing. The negotiations and the drama they produced were epic and for the most part made me chuckle. I was surprised it took so long to get a deal done but this was a pretty big contract (biggest in Habs history) and both sides were playing a game of brinksmanship poker. I for one do not believe for a second that the time it took to get the deal done was all the Habs fault. I think each side knew perfectly well what it was doing and that a deal would be reached. I also do not buy the “Molson/Habs panicked” theory nor the “Habs never loved or respected Subban” theory. This was a hard fought business deal that seems to have been hammered out in respect. The deal itself is massive but fair to both parties. I assumed it would be 8 x 8 but it ended up being 9 x 8.  At the end of the day the Habs locked up a key member of their young core and he was happy to sign (see his radio conference). The shots taken at Bergevin by fans during the negotiations varied from hilarious to pretty sad and disturbing. Subban took the time to comment on those and defend his GM extensively. This went well beyond lip service or PR on PK’s part and that is an excellent sign for everyone involved.

Analysis

How does it all shape out now that these moves have been discussed?

Here my projection for the opening lineup:

Forwards

Pacioretty – Desharnais – Parenteau 

Galchenyuk – Plekanec – Sekac

Bourque – Eller – Gallagher

Prust – Malhotra – Weise

*Moen, Bournival or a kid from the AHL

I feel Sekac may have an edge due to his KHL experience. It is also possible Gallagher remains with DD and Patches and that Parenteau plays with either Plekanec or Eller. If Sekac does not make the team outright, one of the kids (De la rose, Andrigetto) may slide into the lineup or Weise/Prust may be bumped to the 3rd line while Moen slots in on the 4th line. Habs also have to consider Bournival. He showed he can be a NHLer last year and his speed is a big asset to this team. He may find a spot on the 4th line or the 3rd line depending on the moves management makes.

The Habs are still week on the Wings and the issue of Galchenyuk at center is still not resolved (when he will move there…). 

Defensemen

Emelin – Subban

Markov – Gilbert

Beaulieu – Weaver

*Tinordi or Pateryn or a signed veteran

The D is far more balanced this year by having d-men all play on their natural sides. I feel Emelin will be given a shot as PK’s partner but the situation remains fluid. I put Beaulieu ahead of Tinordi because I think he overtook the bigger d-man in terms of development. This is not a shot on Tinordi, I just feel big d-men tend to take longer to develop. I would not be shocked to see Tinordi get another half season of development with the Bulldogs. It is also possible Tinordi beats out Beaulieu at camp for a position on the bottom pair with Weaver. It is also possible Bergevin who loves collecting d-men will sign a veteran d-men to add depth. That could mean that veteran is the 7th d-man which would send one of the kids back to the Bulldogs. Depending how Gilbert & Emelin do, the top two pairs could see some juggling. Still overall, the D now is more mobile and has at least one puck mover on each pair. 

Goaltending

Price

Budaj or Tokarski

No question marks between the pipes in terms of Price. Who the backup will be is still up for debate. It is quite possible the Habs simply keep Budaj but it is also possible he gets traded or waived and that Tokarski ends up as the backup this year. This could mean Price plays around 64-65 games leaving Tokarski with roughly 20 starts. I feel this could be smart in terms of resting Price and keeping him fresher for the playoffs. 

How does this lineup look?

The youth movement has continued but the team also signed some key veterans. The defense is more balanced and the Habs have a hole on the wing. They also have decisions to make at center. If they wish to move Galchenyuk to center, they will need to trade one of their top 3 centers because none of them can play wing effectively. The debate for such a trade will be between Desharnais and Plekanec. Each scenario has advantages and disadvantages. Each of these players brings a different game to the Habs. One thing is also clear, some fans clearly overestimate the “depth” the Habs have at center and how the team somehow has a “logjam” at that position…

Let’s look at each scenario

Trade Desharnais

He is tradable (despite what some fans choose to think). His contract is good for what he brings. Trading him means Galchenyuk is slotted in on the top 2 lines as an offensive center. That dumps the kid in a high pressure situation right away. The impact on the lineup will be felt in terms of face offs and offense (positively or negatively). In such a scenario, Plecanek is your defacto number 1 center while Galchenyuk matures. Eller stays in the number 3 slot with added defensive responsibilities. If Galchenyuk falters, the Habs will hurt on offense. Such a trade could affect Pacioretty who is Desharnais’s buddy. This needs to be considered but the big guy also should be professional enough to handle this trade…

Trade Plekanec

This is a completely different scenario and may be risker yet more rewarding in terms of what the Habs get back. Let’s be clear, Plekanec is the Habs best trade chip at center. He will get you more back than Desharnais. Trading him however means two risks: Galchenyuk at center is no certain thing at first and Eller has to become the high end shutdown center now to fill the hole left by Plekanec. This option is risker for the Habs current lineup. 

My take:

If I had to choose, I would trade Desharnais and keep Plekanec because that is safer. However, if the Habs want to plug that hole on the wing in their top 6, trading Plekanec makes more sense. I personally think Bergevin will not trade away one of his centers now and that Galchenyuk will spend some time on the wing to start the year. Perhaps by mid-season, if Galchenyuk has had time at center and shown he can handle himself, then Bergevin may entertain trading Plekanec or Desharnais. This will also depend on how Eller does…so this looks like a wait and see thing.

I also expect Moen and Budaj to be moved/waived. Moen seems to be an odd man out and his cap hit makes him pricey for a press box spare forward. Habs also have to do something about Bournival. He can be an effective bottom 6 guy.  Budaj seems like he will be moved and I think Tokarski will be a good backup as he develops. Should Price get hurt again (god forbid) having Tokarski as the backup means the Habs can maybe carry on for bit in better shape than with Budaj taking over. 

In conclusion, the Habs still need a big top 6 scoring winger, this needs to be addressed at some point either internally or via trade. As the summer winds down, Bergevin may yet make a move or two…

TROY IS BURNING! TROY IS BURNING! 

Subban hysteria hits Montreal after arbitration hearing

This will be my take on the PK Subban and the Montreal Canadiens situation. I warn anyone reading this, I ABHOR people who refuse to see that every situation has two sides. This post will be in line with that kind of perspective: a two sided situation. 

If you are a Subban fanatic who takes what his now going on as some personal affront, if you participated in the sad online pogrom aimed at firing Bergevin or if you are a Subban basher, well this might not be a good read for you. Fans are fans, but this situation has shown the more lunatic and hysteric side of Habs nation. 

Let me get one thing out of the way first: I am a big fan of PK Subban the player. I love what he brings to the game, I want him signed long term in Montreal so I can see him truly mature into an elite defenceman. He is nearly there now and for the most part he has reached that level through various parts of his game. I think he is an important part of this team being built. I am NOT siding with the Canadiens' management either.  

Ok, now that this is out of the way, here is my take on this situation...

I did not expect Subban and the Habs to go to arbitration and a long term deal may yet be signed (seems like a long shot) before the ruling. I was of the opinion that this would get done at 7.5 - 8.5 per season for 6 to 8 years. 

The fact Subban filed for arbitration was NOT a surprise, it was a normal process as far as I am concerned. The numbers that were floated online (Habs and Subbans arbitration demands) were also not surprising as this is a normal part of the process. 

How do I see whats going on? This is a big stakes game being played between the Habs and Subban/his agent. Each side is playing the cards they have. Subban's camp has played this superbly as far as I am concerned. He won the PR battle hands down this time. This is part of the process and part of any negociation. The Habs have their position, Subban has his. Apparently the two sides are unwilling to budge on something. Too many people have jumped in and blamed the Habs 100%. That is in my opinion an emotion fueled response and a rash judgement based on very incomplete information. 

Very little is known of the negotiations, some numbers were floated around twitter but nothing was clearly  or officially substantiated. This lack of hard evidence did not stop fans, pundits and sadly some media from fanning the flames and firing full bore on the Habs while painting Subban as some sort of victim. 

Some has said Habs lacked respect for Subban, did not "love" him (that was is particularly silly IMO), wanted to push him out of town (sillier) and so on. Once again, this is a negociation for a long term and rich contract. It is complicated and it involves more than a raw number per season and a set number of years. The CBA has to be considered, as does the salary cap and importantly the team structure. Subban is a great player but no player, no matter how good can be bigger than the team. This is not to say Subban see's himself that way, this is for the more rabid fans out there who clamor "pay him whatever he wants nowwwwwwwwwww". That is not how team is run. 

The GM has to think of the entire roster, of the future and of how he wishes to make his team a perennial contender and a competitive team every year. It is certain the GM wishes to sign Subban, thinking otherwise is a bit silly in my opinion. It is also clear the player wants to stay here. I think Subban means it when he says he wants to be a Hab for life. 

Common ground has to be reached and it may not be reached now. 

If the arbitration results in a 1 year 7M deal, the Earth will not explode and the Habs will not spontaneously combust. The GM can then start negocicating an extension after January 1st 2015 and an arbitration deal does not mean Subban is gone. 

I for one still hope to see Subban signed long term before the ruling or after January 1st. I am also aware that no player is untouchable in this league (see Gretzky, Wayne). Any player can be traded and this includes Subban. If somehow Subban lets it known to Habs management that he is not interested in re-signing with the club next year, well, the GM is smart enough to trade him. 

So, let us all take a deep breath, relax and take this with some perspective. This may take a while. There will be more wild online speculation and tons of unsubstantiated information tossed out there. My advice: take this with a grain of salt and exercise caution before drawing hasty conclusions!