Habs post-mortem: A team on the upswing
It is the morning after, a night has passed since the painful elimination of the Montreal Canadiens at the hands of the New York Rangers in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. the Rangers played a perfect Game 6 and the Habs simply could not pierce through the defensive coverage. The game ended 1-0 and the Habs should feel no shame. I am not one of those people who thinks the Habs gave up or failed to show up last night. I saw a team that battled, tried hard but ran up against a Blueshirts team that left them no room or space. I also saw a Habs team that may have run out of gas to some degree but also a team that took the Rangers to 6 games without Carey Price after he went down to injury.
Now, on a calm Friday morning in Montreal, the sun has risen, the birds are chirping and the Habs season is over. Why am I not bitter and gloomy? In previous playoff runs, I was usually sadder and gloomier when Les Glorieux were eliminated. So what has changed?
Simply put, for the first time in a long, long time, this team is on the upswing and this playoff run thus feels legitimate. The team has a solid young core of players and interesting choices to make this off season. They are well managed from the GM's office to the bench. The progression of this team is pretty interesting.
Before I get into my Habs season post-mortem and into my off-season game plan, let me be up front: I am not a card carrying member of the advanced stats tell the whole story club. I use these stats as a complement to my evaluation of the Habs, not as the tool that defines players. If you want advanced stats based analysis, there are tons of great sites managed by dedicated people who can offer that to you. In here you will get a more qualitative approach, a bit more informal. You have been warned!
Character you say?
Character is a word that was bandied about by Bergevin and Therrien throughout the season and in the playoffs. when the Habs acquired or signed a player, the word character was used to explain why. Some fans got tired of this, some found it funny. It made me chucked to hear Habs management repeat it over and over and then the season and the playoffs unfolded and character was shown to have been the defining core trait of this team. A group of players that did not give up, that got off the mat each time they were knocked down, that battled and clawed their way to the playoffs. This team's character was on full display in the playoffs right up to the end in the big Apple. For that, Bergevin and Therrien deserve full marks.
Off-Season Game Plan
This is my view of what is ahead for the Habs. I will not discuss the draft as I have not had time to look into who the Habs can get. I will thus focus on players that should be re-signed, let go or traded and on what is ahead in broad terms.
Going into the off-season the Habs have to work with a 71M Cap. The following players are UFA:
T. Vanek, B. Gionta, G. Parros, A. Markov, F. Bouillon, D. Murray, M. Weaver
The RFAs:
PK Subban, L. Eller, D. Weise, R. White
Taking all their salaries out of the equation, the Habs have roughly 26M in Cap Space. Of course that number is not real because the Habs will clearly re-sign some of these players.
To me the keepers here are as follows (contracts are just my estimation):
PK Subban (8 years, 8M per)
L. Eller (4-5 years, 4.5-5M per)
A. Markov (2-3 years, 6M per)
D. Weise (2-3 years, 2M per)
These guys will be signed in my opinion.
Subban is the team's #1 Dman, he is a critical element of the core and a leader. Eller is blossoming into the team's 3rd centre, Markov can be a good 3rd dman on this team and a superb PP QB as well as a mentor for young D. Weise is what the Habs want and need: a big player with speed, heart and grit.
Beyond that I do not know what management will choose to do.
What are the Habs needs?
I think a true no 2 Dman that can play with Subban is needed.
I also think another big winger is needed. I do not see the Habs signing Vanek so he needs to be replaced.
What are the Habs options?
1- Go with youth
This means bringing up kids from the farm. This can work on defense as the Habs have Tinordi, Beaulieu and Pateryn. The other young Dmen are not as close to or NHL ready in my opinion.
Up front, the Habs pool of forwards is rather thin in terms of top 6, NHL ready players and by thin I actually mean empty for now. Some interesting forwards will play in Hamilton next year: McCarron, DeLarose, perhaps Connor Crisp?
If the Habs go with youth, they will need to either re-sign a few vets up front of trade to get what they need.
I do not see the Habs going with youth as a full on option. The team is beyond that now.
2- Dip into the free agency pool
I am no big fan of this and happily for me, neither is Bergevin. He seems to use the free agency pool to fill specific supporting cast roles (Brière, Prust, Murray) at reasonable prices. I am comfortable with that approach as I think Free Agent Frenzy is a mad house where teams grossly overpay (ah hum David Clarkson).
Looking at this summers pool of players, there are intriguing names and I think that perhaps Bergevin might dip his toes in the pool for some.
3- Wheel, Deal, re-sign and youth: the blended approach
This is what I see happening this off-season. I think Bergevin can trade for reinforcements while re-signing key players (the keepers I named before).
Who I think is trade bait on the Habs?
Travis Moen
Useful 3rd or 4th liner, big body, good on the PK, reasonable contract.
Peter Budaj
Good backup, reasonable contract with one year left.
Thomas Plekanec
Great two-way centre, 2 years left at 5M, team guy, durable.
Josh Gorges
Durable, tough as nails, shot blocking machine with leadership.
Rene Bourque
Enigmatic Rene is hard to peg. Is he the deadbeat of the past 2 regular seasons of the stud of this year's playoff run?
To me Budaj and Moen are no brainers. They can be traded as Tokarski replaces Budaj and Weise replaces Moen.
Saying Plekanec is trade bait hurts me. i absolutely love him as a player. He is a solid hockey player. However the Habs have a surplus at Centre and Galchenyuk needs to start his transition to that position. Plekanec is also the Habs best trade chip and can get a good return. Properly packaged he can likely get a true #2 D-man. Just trade him to the far reaches of the Western Conference please!
I see Desharnais as a transition player at centre until the Habs finally settle that position's problem. With a big winger, DD can produce offensively. He simply cannot be the teams #1 centre. I am not opposed to trading him but I do not see it happening.
Plekanec is older and will bring back more.
Gorges is one of those guys I would hate to see being traded but if the Habs want to make room on D he may be a good trade option and he would garner interest.
Key trade targets have to be that #2 Dman and a big winger who can score (like every other team out there).
The one free agent I see as an option is Paul Stastny of Colorado. He would be a good addition at centre if the Habs make room for him of course. He will however be in the middle of a silly bidding war and thus will likely demand an inflated contract. If they sign him, the top 3 centre-line looks thus: Stastny, DD, Eller. The issue is Chucky and when you move him at C.
If you do not sign a centre and trade Plekanec, then your top 3 c-line looks thus: DD, Galchenyuk, Eller.
With Stastny you get the option of grooming Chucky a bit longer and you allow Eller to grow into the full-time role of shut down C on a 3rd line that can also score.
Conclusion
Habs are on the upswing, they are evolving into a contender. Their core is rock solid and young with Price, Subban, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Eller and company. They still needs veterans to mentor and stabilize this core and guys like Markov can do that while guys like Beaulieu grow into their roles.
It is fun to be Habs fan again, lets all enjoy it....
Oh and as a closing remark, you can be sure this guy will get a 3-4 year contract extension. :)
On to the draft and off-season...but I will also be watching the Cup Finals. Go Hawks or Go Kings!
